Back to College Football Picks
EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Oregon Ducks

1-0
Final
31 39

Oklahoma State Cowboys

0-1
Q1 7–3
Q2 10–21
Q3 7–6
Q4 7–9
2026-09-12T17:30:00+00:00 Boone Pickens Stadium
ORE 75%
25% OKST
ORE 26.8 16.0 OKST projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
ORE
-24.5 -110
-2400
O 55.5 -110
OKST
+24.5 -110
+1200
U 55.5 -110

Best Pick

🔒 Locked

Buy credits or subscribe for $39.99/mo

Model Analysis 🔒

-7.1 Favors Oregon Ducks (ORE) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market OKST +24.5 Model OKST +10.8
13.7 pt edge → OKST covers
Total (O/U)
Market 55.5 Model 42.7
3.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 55.5
Moneyline
Model: OKST 25% win Market OKST +1200
21.0% edge · pick Oregon Ducks ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors OKST, − favors ORE.

Power / Efficiency -66.7
OREOKST
Favors ORE
Situational +38.0
OREOKST
Favors OKST
Sharp Money -11.7
OREOKST
Favors ORE
Matchup +46.7
OREOKST
Favors OKST
How factors were scored · 9 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

ORE Factor value OKST
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -100 ORE
7.77
4.18
Oklahoma State Cowboys: 4.18 vs Oregon Ducks: 7.77
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 ORE
34.0
10.0
Oklahoma State Cowboys: 10.0 vs Oregon Ducks: 34.0
Defensive Strength +47 OKST
27.0
24.0
Oklahoma State Cowboys allows 24.0 vs Oregon Ducks: 27.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -100 ORE
9.9
4.9
Oklahoma State Cowboys: 4.9 vs Oregon Ducks: 9.9
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 ORE
4.8
3.4
Oklahoma State Cowboys: 3.4 vs Oregon Ducks: 4.8
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 OKST
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +35 OKST
65.0
76.0
Money 76% vs tickets 65% on home
Sharp vs Public (Total) -64 EVEN
35.0
15.0
Total money 15% over vs tickets 35%
Matchup
Pass Rush (Sacks) +47 OKST
1.0
2.0
Oklahoma State Cowboys: 2.0 vs Oregon Ducks: 1.0

Team Stats Comparison

ORE Stat OKST
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
34.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
10.0
7.77
Yards / Play
4.18
378
Pass Yards / Game
241
119
Rush Yards / Game
127
9.9
Yards / Pass Att
4.9
4.8
Yards / Carry
3.4
73.7
Completion %
59.2
33.3
3rd Down %
31.2
64
Plays / Game
88
Defense
27.0
Points Allowed
24.0
4.03
YPP Allowed
6.33
181
Pass Yds Allowed
227
93
Rush Yds Allowed
134
6.2
Opp Yards / Pass Att
9.5
1.0
Sacks / Game
2.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
+7.0
Point Diff / Game
-14.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 18973 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
ORE
35%
of tickets
OKST
65%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
ORE
24%
of handle
OKST
76%
of handle
Money is OKST-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
65%
of tickets
Over
35%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

ORE
No report
OKST
No report
95°F 2

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected ORE 26.8 – OKST 16.0

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.