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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Weber State Wildcats

1-1
5:08 - 4th
14 – 45

Colorado Buffaloes

1-0
Q1 7–21
Q2 7–21
Q3 0–3
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 Folsom Field
WEB 24%
76% COLO
WEB 14.3 – 25.4 COLO projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
WEB
+38.5 -110
+2000
O 57.5 -110
COLO
-38.5 -110
-6500
U 57.5 -110

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Model Analysis 🔒

-16.4 Favors Weber State Wildcats (WEB) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market COLO -38.5 Model COLO -11.1
27.4 pt edge → WEB value
Total (O/U)
Market 57.5 Model 39.7
3.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 57.5
Moneyline
Model: COLO 76% win Market COLO -6500
19.7% edge · pick Weber State Wildcats ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors COLO, − favors WEB.

Power / Efficiency -54.5
WEBCOLO
Favors WEB
Situational +36.3
WEBCOLO
Favors COLO
Sharp Money +13.8
WEBCOLO
Favors COLO
Matchup -69.1
WEBCOLO
Favors WEB
How factors were scored · 12 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

WEB Factor value COLO
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -100 WEB
6.10
3.99
Colorado Buffaloes: 3.99 vs Weber State Wildcats: 6.10
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 WEB
36.0
14.0
Colorado Buffaloes: 14.0 vs Weber State Wildcats: 36.0
Defensive Strength +100 COLO
38.0
13.0
Colorado Buffaloes allows 13.0 vs Weber State Wildcats: 38.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -100 WEB
7.2
4.6
Colorado Buffaloes: 4.6 vs Weber State Wildcats: 7.2
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 WEB
5.2
3.7
Colorado Buffaloes: 3.7 vs Weber State Wildcats: 5.2
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 COLO
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Rest Advantage +35 EVEN
6.0
8.0
Colorado Buffaloes: 8d rest vs Weber State Wildcats: 6d
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) -70 WEB
90.0
68.0
Money 68% vs tickets 90% on home
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 WEB
10.0
90.0
Contrarian: public 90% home
Sharp vs Public (Total) +35 EVEN
30.0
41.0
Total money 41% over vs tickets 30%
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -48 WEB
46.7%
41.2%
Colorado Buffaloes: 41.2% vs Weber State Wildcats: 46.7%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -93 WEB
3.0
1.0
Colorado Buffaloes: 1.0 vs Weber State Wildcats: 3.0

Team Stats Comparison

WEB Stat COLO
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
36.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
14.0
6.10
Yards / Play
3.99
258
Pass Yards / Game
124
158
Rush Yards / Game
183
7.2
Yards / Pass Att
4.6
5.2
Yards / Carry
3.7
51.4
Completion %
51.9
46.7
3rd Down %
41.2
68
Plays / Game
77
Defense
38.0
Points Allowed
13.0
6.53
YPP Allowed
5.05
186
Pass Yds Allowed
237
314
Rush Yds Allowed
51
7.3
Opp Yards / Pass Att
9.9
3.0
Sacks / Game
1.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
0.0
Splits & Betting Record
-2.0
Point Diff / Game
+1.0
Situational (game-day)
6
Rest Days
8

Betting Splits 1231 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
WEB
10%
of tickets
COLO
90%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
WEB
32%
of handle
COLO
68%
of handle
Money is WEB-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
70%
of tickets
Over
30%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

WEB
No report
COLO
No report
73°F 6

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected WEB 14.3 – COLO 25.4

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.