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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

UCF Knights

1-0
0:38 - 3rd
0 – 12

Pittsburgh Panthers

1-0
Q1 0–3
Q2 0–9
Q3 0–0
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 Acrisure Stadium
UCF 84%
16% PITT
UCF 28.9 – 12.7 PITT projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
UCF
+7.0 -110
+225
O 55.5 -110
PITT
-7.0 -110
-278
U 55.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

-20.3 Favors UCF Knights (UCF) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market PITT -7.0 Model PITT +16.3
23.3 pt edge → UCF value · pick UCF Knights +7.0
Total (O/U)
Market 55.5 Model 41.6
13.9 pt edge → Under · pick Under 55.5
Moneyline
Model: PITT 16% win Market PITT -278
53.7% edge · pick UCF Knights ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors PITT, − favors UCF.

Power / Efficiency -57.6
UCFPITT
Favors UCF
Situational -2.6
UCFPITT
Favors UCF
Sharp Money 0.0
UCFPITT
Even
Matchup 0.0
UCFPITT
Even
How factors were scored · 7 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

UCF Factor value PITT
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -43 UCF
9.18
8.50
Pittsburgh Panthers: 8.50 vs UCF Knights: 9.18
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 UCF
73.0
59.0
Pittsburgh Panthers: 59.0 vs UCF Knights: 73.0
Defensive Strength -100 UCF
6.0
14.0
Pittsburgh Panthers allows 14.0 vs UCF Knights: 6.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +90 PITT
9.1
10.9
Pittsburgh Panthers: 10.9 vs UCF Knights: 9.1
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 UCF
9.5
5.4
Pittsburgh Panthers: 5.4 vs UCF Knights: 9.5
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 PITT
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Rest Advantage -35 EVEN
9.0
7.0
Pittsburgh Panthers: 7d rest vs UCF Knights: 9d

Team Stats Comparison

UCF Stat PITT
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
73.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
59.0
9.18
Yards / Play
8.50
200
Pass Yards / Game
480
360
Rush Yards / Game
166
9.1
Yards / Pass Att
10.9
9.5
Yards / Carry
5.4
68.2
Completion %
77.3
62.5
3rd Down %
63.6
61
Plays / Game
76
Defense
6.0
Points Allowed
14.0
2.87
YPP Allowed
4.82
74
Pass Yds Allowed
262
107
Rush Yds Allowed
27
3.7
Opp Yards / Pass Att
7.1
1.0
Sacks / Game
1.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
+67.0
Point Diff / Game
+45.0
Situational (game-day)
9
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 7921 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
UCF
54%
of tickets
PITT
46%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
UCF
48%
of handle
PITT
52%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
64%
of tickets
Over
36%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

UCF
No report
PITT
No report
87°F 6

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected UCF 28.9 – PITT 12.7

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.