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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

California Golden Bears

0-1
4:51 - 4th
14 – 18

Syracuse Orange

1-0
Q1 0–3
Q2 7–9
Q3 7–6
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 JMA Wireless Dome · Dome
CAL 12%
88% SYR
CAL 9.0 – 52.0 SYR projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
CAL
+4.0 -110
+164
O 56.5 -110
SYR
-4.0 -110
-198
U 56.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+55.1 Favors Syracuse Orange (SYR) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market SYR -4.0 Model SYR -43.0
39.0 pt edge → SYR covers · pick Syracuse Orange -4.0
Total (O/U)
Market 56.5 Model 61.0
4.5 pt edge → Over · pick Over 56.5
Moneyline
Model: SYR 88% win Market SYR -198
21.6% edge · pick Syracuse Orange ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors SYR, − favors CAL.

Power / Efficiency +99.2
CALSYR
Favors SYR
Situational +38.0
CALSYR
Favors SYR
Sharp Money +25.5
CALSYR
Favors SYR
Matchup +31.9
CALSYR
Favors SYR
How factors were scored · 9 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

CAL Factor value SYR
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) +100 SYR
4.56
6.42
Syracuse Orange: 6.42 vs California Golden Bears: 4.56
Scoring Power (PPG) +100 SYR
24.0
66.0
Syracuse Orange: 66.0 vs California Golden Bears: 24.0
Defensive Strength +100 SYR
45.0
3.0
Syracuse Orange allows 3.0 vs California Golden Bears: 45.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +95 SYR
6.2
8.1
Syracuse Orange: 8.1 vs California Golden Bears: 6.2
Rushing Dominance (YPC) +100 SYR
3.0
5.4
Syracuse Orange: 5.4 vs California Golden Bears: 3.0
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 SYR
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +26 EVEN
39.0
47.0
Money 47% vs tickets 39% on home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +100 SYR
52.4%
66.7%
Syracuse Orange: 66.7% vs California Golden Bears: 52.4%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -47 CAL
3.0
2.0
Syracuse Orange: 2.0 vs California Golden Bears: 3.0

Team Stats Comparison

CAL Stat SYR
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
24.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
66.0
4.56
Yards / Play
6.42
291
Pass Yards / Game
275
119
Rush Yards / Game
239
6.2
Yards / Pass Att
8.1
3.0
Yards / Carry
5.4
55.3
Completion %
64.7
52.4
3rd Down %
66.7
90
Plays / Game
80
Defense
45.0
Points Allowed
3.0
8.23
YPP Allowed
2.45
184
Pass Yds Allowed
99
277
Rush Yds Allowed
60
8.4
Opp Yards / Pass Att
3.8
3.0
Sacks / Game
2.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
-21.0
Point Diff / Game
+63.0
Situational (game-day)
6
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 13298 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
CAL
61%
of tickets
SYR
39%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
CAL
53%
of handle
SYR
47%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
69%
of tickets
Over
31%
of tickets

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected CAL 9.0 – SYR 52.0

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.