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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

1-0
Final/2OT
38 – 36

Purdue Boilermakers

1-0
Q1 7–7
Q2 10–3
Q3 3–3
Q4 3–10
Q5 7–7
Q6 8–6
2026-09-12T16:00:00+00:00 Ross-Ade Stadium
WAKE 46%
54% PUR
WAKE 22.9 – 24.4 PUR projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
WAKE
-2.5 -110
-142
O 51.5 -110
PUR
+2.5 -110
+120
U 51.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+15.1 Favors Purdue Boilermakers (PUR) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market PUR +2.5 Model PUR -1.6
4.1 pt edge → PUR covers · pick Purdue Boilermakers +2.5
Total (O/U)
Market 51.5 Model 47.3
4.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 51.5
Moneyline
Model: PUR 54% win Market PUR +120
8.4% edge · pick Purdue Boilermakers ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors PUR, − favors WAKE.

Power / Efficiency -26.7
WAKEPUR
Favors WAKE
Situational +38.0
WAKEPUR
Favors PUR
Sharp Money 0.0
WAKEPUR
Even
Matchup +84.7
WAKEPUR
Favors PUR
How factors were scored · 9 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

WAKE Factor value PUR
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -85 WAKE
8.22
6.88
Purdue Boilermakers: 6.88 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 8.22
Scoring Power (PPG) +84 PUR
38.0
44.0
Purdue Boilermakers: 44.0 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 38.0
Defensive Strength -47 WAKE
16.0
19.0
Purdue Boilermakers allows 19.0 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 16.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) 0 EVEN
10.2
10.2
Purdue Boilermakers: 10.2 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 10.2
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 WAKE
6.2
4.4
Purdue Boilermakers: 4.4 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 6.2
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 PUR
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +69 PUR
46.7%
54.5%
Purdue Boilermakers: 54.5% vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 46.7%
Pass Rush (Sacks) +93 PUR
0.0
2.0
Purdue Boilermakers: 2.0 vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 0.0
Special Teams (FG%) +100 PUR
75.0%
100.0%
Purdue Boilermakers: 100.0% vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons: 75.0%

Team Stats Comparison

WAKE Stat PUR
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
38.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
44.0
8.22
Yards / Play
6.88
356
Pass Yards / Game
346
203
Rush Yards / Game
177
10.2
Yards / Pass Att
10.2
6.2
Yards / Carry
4.4
62.9
Completion %
79.4
46.7
3rd Down %
54.5
68
Plays / Game
76
Defense
16.0
Points Allowed
19.0
4.30
YPP Allowed
5.80
156
Pass Yds Allowed
218
149
Rush Yds Allowed
66
4.7
Opp Yards / Pass Att
9.9
0.0
Sacks / Game
2.0
Ball Security & Kicking
75.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
+22.0
Point Diff / Game
+25.0
Situational (game-day)
9
Rest Days
8

Betting Splits 16620 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
WAKE
54%
of tickets
PUR
46%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
WAKE
48%
of handle
PUR
52%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
75%
of tickets
Over
25%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

WAKE
No report
PUR
No report
85°F 1

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected WAKE 22.9 – PUR 24.4

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.