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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Penn State Nittany Lions

2-0
Final
27 – 9

Temple Owls

1-1
Q1 0–0
Q2 10–3
Q3 10–0
Q4 7–6
2026-09-12T16:00:00+00:00 Lincoln Financial Field
PSU 12%
88% TEM
PSU 18.7 – 37.2 TEM projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
PSU
-24.5 -110
-3600
O 49.5 -110
TEM
+24.5 -110
+1500
U 49.5 -110

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Model Analysis 🔒

+13.6 Favors Temple Owls (TEM) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market TEM +24.5 Model TEM -18.5
43.0 pt edge → TEM covers
Total (O/U)
Market 49.5 Model 55.9
3.2 pt edge → Over · pick Over 49.5
Moneyline
Model: TEM 88% win Market TEM +1500
81.4% edge · pick Temple Owls ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors TEM, − favors PSU.

Power / Efficiency -41.4
PSUTEM
Favors PSU
Situational +38.0
PSUTEM
Favors TEM
Sharp Money +99.1
PSUTEM
Favors TEM
Matchup -30.2
PSUTEM
Favors PSU
How factors were scored · 10 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

PSU Factor value TEM
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -58 PSU
6.67
5.77
Temple Owls: 5.77 vs Penn State Nittany Lions: 6.67
Scoring Power (PPG) -98 PSU
45.0
38.0
Temple Owls: 38.0 vs Penn State Nittany Lions: 45.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -100 PSU
12.0
8.9
Temple Owls: 8.9 vs Penn State Nittany Lions: 12.0
Rushing Dominance (YPC) +100 TEM
3.6
5.0
Temple Owls: 5.0 vs Penn State Nittany Lions: 3.6
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 TEM
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 TEM
22.0
81.0
Money 81% vs tickets 22% on home
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +98 TEM
78.0
22.0
Contrarian: public 22% home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -100 PSU
50.0%
25.0%
Temple Owls: 25.0% vs Penn State Nittany Lions: 50.0%
Pass Rush (Sacks) +93 TEM
1.0
3.0
Temple Owls: 3.0 vs Penn State Nittany Lions: 1.0
Special Teams (FG%) -100 PSU
100.0%
50.0%
Temple Owls: 50.0% vs Penn State Nittany Lions: 100.0%

Team Stats Comparison

PSU Stat TEM
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
45.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
38.0
6.67
Yards / Play
5.77
324
Pass Yards / Game
142
163
Rush Yards / Game
227
12.0
Yards / Pass Att
8.9
3.6
Yards / Carry
5.0
74.1
Completion %
56.3
50.0
3rd Down %
25.0
73
Plays / Game
64
Defense
0.0
Points Allowed
14.0
2.62
YPP Allowed
4.63
103
Pass Yds Allowed
195
44
Rush Yds Allowed
97
3.7
Opp Yards / Pass Att
6.3
1.0
Sacks / Game
3.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
50.0
Splits & Betting Record
+0.0
Point Diff / Game
+24.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 14338 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
PSU
78%
of tickets
TEM
22%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
PSU
19%
of handle
TEM
81%
of handle
Money is TEM-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
59%
of tickets
Over
41%
of tickets

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected PSU 18.7 – TEM 37.2

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.