Back to College Football Picks
UConn Huskies: 9.19 vs Maryland Terrapins: 8.28
UConn Huskies: 56.0 vs Maryland Terrapins: 62.0
UConn Huskies: 11.2 vs Maryland Terrapins: 7.4
UConn Huskies: 7.5 vs Maryland Terrapins: 9.1
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Money 39% vs tickets 16% on home
Contrarian: public 16% home
UConn Huskies: 50.0% vs Maryland Terrapins: 57.1%
Maryland Terrapins
1-0
13:06 - 4th
31
–
14
UConn Huskies
1-0
Q1
7–7
Q2
10–0
Q3
14–7
MD 12%
88% CONN
MD
12.0
–
51.5
CONN
projected
Tap a cell to add to your slip
Spread
ML
O/U
MD
-11.5
-110
-470
O
52.5
-110
CONN
+11.5
-110
+360
U
52.5
-110
Model Analysis 🔒
Model vs Market
Spread (side)
Market CONN +11.5
Model CONN -39.6
51.1 pt edge →
CONN covers
· pick UConn Huskies +11.5
Total (O/U)
Market 52.5
Model 63.5
11.0 pt edge →
Over
· pick Over 52.5
Moneyline
Model: CONN 88% win
Market CONN +360
66.3% edge
· pick UConn Huskies ML
Category leans
Same sign as Overall: + favors CONN, − favors MD.
Power / Efficiency
-12.1
MDCONN
Favors MD
Situational
+38.0
MDCONN
Favors CONN
Sharp Money
+84.7
MDCONN
Favors CONN
Matchup
-62.5
MDCONN
Favors MD
How factors were scored · 8 inputs
Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.
MD
Factor value
CONN
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy)
+58
CONN
8.28
9.19
Scoring Power (PPG)
-84
MD
62.0
56.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA)
+100
CONN
7.4
11.2
Rushing Dominance (YPC)
-100
MD
9.1
7.5
Situational
Home Field Advantage
+38
CONN
0.0
3.5
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread)
+73
CONN
16.0
39.0
Sharp vs Public (Spread)
+100
CONN
84.0
16.0
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency
-62
MD
57.1%
50.0%
Team Stats Comparison
MD
Stat
CONN
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
62.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
56.0
8.28
Yards / Play
9.19
281
Pass Yards / Game
370
365
Rush Yards / Game
301
7.4
Yards / Pass Att
11.2
9.1
Yards / Carry
7.5
65.8
Completion %
75.8
57.1
3rd Down %
50.0
78
Plays / Game
73
Defense
0.0
Points Allowed
7.0
1.55
YPP Allowed
2.82
75
Pass Yds Allowed
145
10
Rush Yds Allowed
64
3.9
Opp Yards / Pass Att
3.5
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
0.0
Splits & Betting Record
+0.0
Point Diff / Game
+49.0
Situational (game-day)
6
Rest Days
7
Betting Splits 4972 bets tracked
Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.
Spread · % of tickets
MD
84%
of tickets
CONN
16%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
MD
61%
of handle
CONN
39%
of handle
Money is CONN-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
66%
of tickets
Over
34%
of tickets
Availability & Conditions
MD
No report
CONN
No report
77°F
6
PMill Verdict
No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.
Projected MD 12.0 – CONN 51.5
Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.