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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Rice Owls

1-0
5:54 - 4th
0 – 52

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

1-0
Q1 0–21
Q2 0–21
Q3 0–10
2026-09-12T19:30:00+00:00 Notre Dame Stadium
RICE 59%
41% ND
RICE 12.7 – 9.0 ND projected

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Spread
ML
O/U
RICE
+44.5 -110
–
O 54.5 -110
ND
-44.5 -110
–
U 54.5 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+26.7 Favors Notre Dame Fighting Irish (ND) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market ND -44.5 Model ND +3.7
48.2 pt edge → RICE value
Total (O/U)
Market 54.5 Model 21.7
3.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 54.5

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors ND, − favors RICE.

Power / Efficiency -8.4
RICEND
Favors RICE
Situational +38.0
RICEND
Favors ND
Sharp Money +87.7
RICEND
Favors ND
Matchup -2.6
RICEND
Favors RICE
How factors were scored · 12 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

RICE Factor value ND
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -33 RICE
6.16
5.65
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 5.65 vs Rice Owls: 6.16
Scoring Power (PPG) +100 ND
31.0
41.0
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 41.0 vs Rice Owls: 31.0
Defensive Strength -100 RICE
3.0
13.0
Notre Dame Fighting Irish allows 13.0 vs Rice Owls: 3.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +100 ND
3.2
8.2
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 8.2 vs Rice Owls: 3.2
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 RICE
6.6
3.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 3.5 vs Rice Owls: 6.6
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 ND
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 ND
12.0
51.0
Money 51% vs tickets 12% on home
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +100 ND
88.0
12.0
Contrarian: public 12% home
Sharp vs Public (Total) +64 EVEN
36.0
56.0
Total money 56% over vs tickets 36%
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -100 RICE
64.7%
33.3%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 33.3% vs Rice Owls: 64.7%
Pass Rush (Sacks) +47 ND
0.0
1.0
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 1.0 vs Rice Owls: 0.0
Special Teams (FG%) +100 ND
50.0%
100.0%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: 100.0% vs Rice Owls: 50.0%

Team Stats Comparison

RICE Stat ND
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
31.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
41.0
6.16
Yards / Play
5.65
35
Pass Yards / Game
239
458
Rush Yards / Game
111
3.2
Yards / Pass Att
8.2
6.6
Yards / Carry
3.5
45.5
Completion %
65.5
64.7
3rd Down %
33.3
80
Plays / Game
62
Defense
3.0
Points Allowed
13.0
4.03
YPP Allowed
4.51
98
Pass Yds Allowed
217
148
Rush Yds Allowed
67
4.3
Opp Yards / Pass Att
7.2
0.0
Sacks / Game
1.0
Ball Security & Kicking
50.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
+28.0
Point Diff / Game
+28.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
6

Betting Splits 5089 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
RICE
88%
of tickets
ND
12%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
RICE
49%
of handle
ND
51%
of handle
Money is ND-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
64%
of tickets
Over
36%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

RICE
Out: 0 · Doubtful: 0 · Questionable: 0
ND
No report
86°F 6

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected RICE 12.7 – ND 9.0

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.