Back to College Football Picks
EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

UNLV Rebels

1-1
5:39 - 3rd
3 – 20

North Texas Mean Green

0-1
1H 0–13
2H 3–7
2026-09-12T19:45:00+00:00 DATCU Stadium
UNLV 88%
12% UNT
UNLV 40.9 – 13.2 UNT projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
UNLV
-3.5 -110
-135
O 57.5 -110
UNT
+3.5 -110
+151
U 57.5 -110

Best Pick

🔒 Locked

Buy credits or subscribe for $39.99/mo

Model Analysis 🔒

-9.2 Favors UNLV Rebels (UNLV) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market UNT +3.5 Model UNT +27.7
24.2 pt edge → UNLV value · pick UNLV Rebels -3.5
Total (O/U)
Market 57.5 Model 54.0
3.5 pt edge → Under · pick Under 57.5
Moneyline
Model: UNT 12% win Market UNT +151
30.6% edge · pick UNLV Rebels ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors UNT, − favors UNLV.

Power / Efficiency -54.6
UNLVUNT
Favors UNLV
Situational +38.0
UNLVUNT
Favors UNT
Sharp Money +5.2
UNLVUNT
Favors UNT
Matchup -15.2
UNLVUNT
Favors UNLV
How factors were scored · 10 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

UNLV Factor value UNT
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -13 EVEN
5.61
5.40
North Texas Mean Green: 5.40 vs UNLV Rebels: 5.61
Scoring Power (PPG) -70 UNLV
21.0
16.0
North Texas Mean Green: 16.0 vs UNLV Rebels: 21.0
Defensive Strength -100 UNLV
16.5
52.0
North Texas Mean Green allows 52.0 vs UNLV Rebels: 16.5
Passing Efficiency (YPA) +5 EVEN
7.3
7.4
North Texas Mean Green: 7.4 vs UNLV Rebels: 7.3
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -78 UNLV
5.0
4.0
North Texas Mean Green: 4.0 vs UNLV Rebels: 5.0
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 UNT
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) -44 UNLV
62.0
48.0
Money 48% vs tickets 62% on home
Sharp vs Public (Total) +60 EVEN
12.0
31.0
Total money 31% over vs tickets 12%
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +58 UNT
33.3%
40.0%
North Texas Mean Green: 40.0% vs UNLV Rebels: 33.3%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -100 UNLV
7.0
1.0
North Texas Mean Green: 1.0 vs UNLV Rebels: 7.0

Team Stats Comparison

UNLV Stat UNT
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
21.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
16.0
5.61
Yards / Play
5.40
204
Pass Yards / Game
215
208
Rush Yards / Game
152
7.3
Yards / Pass Att
7.4
5.0
Yards / Carry
4.0
58.9
Completion %
79.3
33.3
3rd Down %
40.0
74
Plays / Game
68
Defense
16.5
Points Allowed
52.0
5.01
YPP Allowed
7.93
200
Pass Yds Allowed
231
156
Rush Yds Allowed
134
5.8
Opp Yards / Pass Att
14.4
7.0
Sacks / Game
1.0
Ball Security & Kicking
0.0
FG %
75.0
Splits & Betting Record
+4.5
Point Diff / Game
-36.0
Situational (game-day)
6
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 11394 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
UNLV
38%
of tickets
UNT
62%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
UNLV
52%
of handle
UNT
48%
of handle
Money is UNLV-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
88%
of tickets
Over
12%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

UNLV
No report
UNT
No report
98°F Sunny

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected UNLV 40.9 – UNT 13.2

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.