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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

App State Mountaineers

1-0
Final
27 – 24

East Carolina Pirates

0-1
Q1 3–7
Q2 14–3
Q3 10–7
Q4 0–7
2026-09-12T16:00:00+00:00 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
APP 88%
12% ECU
APP 52.0 – 9.0 ECU projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
APP
+6.5 -110
+205
O 55.5 -110
ECU
-6.5 -110
-250
U 55.5 -110

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Model Analysis 🔒

-8.4 Favors App State Mountaineers (APP) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market ECU -6.5 Model ECU +43.0
49.5 pt edge → APP value · pick App State Mountaineers +6.5
Total (O/U)
Market 55.5 Model 61.0
5.5 pt edge → Over · pick Over 55.5
Moneyline
Model: ECU 12% win Market ECU -250
55.2% edge · pick App State Mountaineers ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors ECU, − favors APP.

Power / Efficiency -100.0
APPECU
Favors APP
Situational +38.0
APPECU
Favors ECU
Sharp Money 0.0
APPECU
Even
Matchup +93.3
APPECU
Favors ECU
How factors were scored · 7 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

APP Factor value ECU
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -100 APP
8.86
3.68
East Carolina Pirates: 3.68 vs App State Mountaineers: 8.86
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 APP
55.0
10.0
East Carolina Pirates: 10.0 vs App State Mountaineers: 55.0
Defensive Strength -100 APP
3.0
48.0
East Carolina Pirates allows 48.0 vs App State Mountaineers: 3.0
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -100 APP
10.5
8.4
East Carolina Pirates: 8.4 vs App State Mountaineers: 10.5
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 APP
7.7
0.1
East Carolina Pirates: 0.1 vs App State Mountaineers: 7.7
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 ECU
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Matchup
Pass Rush (Sacks) +93 ECU
1.0
3.0
East Carolina Pirates: 3.0 vs App State Mountaineers: 1.0

Team Stats Comparison

APP Stat ECU
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
55.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
10.0
8.86
Yards / Play
3.68
348
Pass Yards / Game
160
299
Rush Yards / Game
2
10.5
Yards / Pass Att
8.4
7.7
Yards / Carry
0.1
87.9
Completion %
57.9
28.6
3rd Down %
0.0
73
Plays / Game
44
Defense
3.0
Points Allowed
48.0
4.03
YPP Allowed
5.94
198
Pass Yds Allowed
260
52
Rush Yds Allowed
227
6.2
Opp Yards / Pass Att
8.1
1.0
Sacks / Game
3.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
+52.0
Point Diff / Game
-38.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 8390 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
APP
48%
of tickets
ECU
52%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
APP
48%
of handle
ECU
52%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
87%
of tickets
Over
13%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

APP
No report
ECU
No report
92°F 2

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected APP 52.0 – ECU 9.0

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.