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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Stony Brook Seawolves

1-1
Final
17 – 41

Ball State Cardinals

0-1
Q1 0–7
Q2 3–14
Q3 0–0
Q4 14–20
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 Scheumann Stadium
STBK 88%
12% BALL
STBK 52.0 – 13.7 BALL projected

Tap a cell to add to your slip

Spread
ML
O/U
STBK
+13.5 -110
+440
O 52.5 -110
BALL
-13.5 -110
-600
U 52.5 -110

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Model Analysis 🔒

-31.0 Favors Stony Brook Seawolves (STBK) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market BALL -13.5 Model BALL +38.3
51.8 pt edge → STBK value · pick Stony Brook Seawolves +13.5
Total (O/U)
Market 52.5 Model 65.7
13.2 pt edge → Over · pick Over 52.5
Moneyline
Model: BALL 12% win Market BALL -600
69.5% edge · pick Stony Brook Seawolves ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors BALL, − favors STBK.

Power / Efficiency -100.0
STBKBALL
Favors STBK
Situational -2.6
STBKBALL
Favors STBK
Sharp Money +87.5
STBKBALL
Favors BALL
Matchup -96.9
STBKBALL
Favors STBK
How factors were scored · 10 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

STBK Factor value BALL
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -100 STBK
6.00
2.70
Ball State Cardinals: 2.70 vs Stony Brook Seawolves: 6.00
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 STBK
35.0
3.0
Ball State Cardinals: 3.0 vs Stony Brook Seawolves: 35.0
Defensive Strength -100 STBK
36.5
56.0
Ball State Cardinals allows 56.0 vs Stony Brook Seawolves: 36.5
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -100 STBK
8.2
3.2
Ball State Cardinals: 3.2 vs Stony Brook Seawolves: 8.2
Rushing Dominance (YPC) -100 STBK
3.7
2.0
Ball State Cardinals: 2.0 vs Stony Brook Seawolves: 3.7
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 BALL
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Rest Advantage -35 EVEN
9.0
7.0
Ball State Cardinals: 7d rest vs Stony Brook Seawolves: 9d
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +88 STBK
25.0
75.0
Contrarian: public 75% home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency -100 STBK
36.0%
21.4%
Ball State Cardinals: 21.4% vs Stony Brook Seawolves: 36.0%
Pass Rush (Sacks) -93 STBK
3.0
1.0
Ball State Cardinals: 1.0 vs Stony Brook Seawolves: 3.0

Team Stats Comparison

STBK Stat BALL
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
35.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
3.0
6.00
Yards / Play
2.70
310
Pass Yards / Game
120
118
Rush Yards / Game
45
8.2
Yards / Pass Att
3.2
3.7
Yards / Carry
2.0
64.5
Completion %
54.1
36.0
3rd Down %
21.4
72
Plays / Game
61
Defense
36.5
Points Allowed
56.0
5.97
YPP Allowed
9.07
234
Pass Yds Allowed
434
205
Rush Yds Allowed
237
8.1
Opp Yards / Pass Att
11.7
3.0
Sacks / Game
1.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
-1.5
Point Diff / Game
-53.0
Situational (game-day)
9
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 1070 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
STBK
25%
of tickets
BALL
75%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
STBK
29%
of handle
BALL
71%
of handle
Total · % of tickets
Under
77%
of tickets
Over
23%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

STBK
No report
BALL
No report
75°F 6

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected STBK 52.0 – BALL 13.7

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.