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EARLY SEASON — PAPER / TRACK MODE · projections flagged for calibration

Alabama State Hornets

2-0
10:40 - 4th
17 – 34

Troy Trojans

1-0
Q1 7–14
Q2 0–17
Q3 10–3
Q4 0–0
2026-09-12T20:00:00+00:00 Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
ALST 77%
23% TROY
ALST 20.9 – 9.0 TROY projected

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Spread
ML
O/U
ALST
+23.0 -110
+1001
O 52.25 -110
TROY
-23.0 -110
-2079
U 52.25 -110

Best Pick

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Model Analysis 🔒

+5.5 Favors Troy Trojans (TROY) — side / ATS lean

Overall is a weighted side lean (not Over/Under). Positive = home advantage in the model; negative = away. Use Model vs Market below for the O/U and moneyline edges.

Model vs Market

Spread (side)
Market TROY -23.0 Model TROY +11.9
34.9 pt edge → ALST value
Total (O/U)
Market 52.25 Model 29.9
3.2 pt edge → Under · pick Under 52.2
Moneyline
Model: TROY 23% win Market TROY -2079
72.6% edge · pick Troy Trojans ML

Category leans

Same sign as Overall: + favors TROY, − favors ALST.

Power / Efficiency -61.9
ALSTTROY
Favors ALST
Situational +15.2
ALSTTROY
Favors TROY
Sharp Money +35.0
ALSTTROY
Favors TROY
Matchup +91.3
ALSTTROY
Favors TROY
How factors were scored · 10 inputs

Each factor compares raw team (or game) numbers, then contributes a signed score to the category above. Team-stat rows below hold the season numbers; situational and sharp factors use rest, weather, injuries, and betting splits.

ALST Factor value TROY
Power / Efficiency
Yards Per Play (EPA proxy) -37 ALST
5.47
4.89
Troy Trojans: 4.89 vs Alabama State Hornets: 5.47
Scoring Power (PPG) -100 ALST
32.0
24.0
Troy Trojans: 24.0 vs Alabama State Hornets: 32.0
Defensive Strength -100 ALST
8.5
21.0
Troy Trojans allows 21.0 vs Alabama State Hornets: 8.5
Passing Efficiency (YPA) -55 ALST
8.0
6.9
Troy Trojans: 6.9 vs Alabama State Hornets: 8.0
Rushing Dominance (YPC) 0 EVEN
4.2
4.2
Troy Trojans: 4.2 vs Alabama State Hornets: 4.2
Situational
Home Field Advantage +38 TROY
0.0
3.5
~3.5 point home advantage (NCAAF)
Weather Impact 0 EVEN
-1.0
-1.0
Total adj -1.0 (rain)
Sharp Money
Sharp vs Public (Spread) +35 TROY
56.0
67.0
Money 67% vs tickets 56% on home
Matchup
Third Down Efficiency +84 TROY
30.4%
40.0%
Troy Trojans: 40.0% vs Alabama State Hornets: 30.4%
Pass Rush (Sacks) +100 TROY
1.0
4.0
Troy Trojans: 4.0 vs Alabama State Hornets: 1.0

Team Stats Comparison

ALST Stat TROY
Offense · Scoring & Efficiency
32.0
Scoring Power (PPG)
24.0
5.47
Yards / Play
4.89
160
Pass Yards / Game
165
154
Rush Yards / Game
177
8.0
Yards / Pass Att
6.9
4.2
Yards / Carry
4.2
62.5
Completion %
50.0
30.4
3rd Down %
40.0
58
Plays / Game
70
Defense
8.5
Points Allowed
21.0
3.89
YPP Allowed
5.04
134
Pass Yds Allowed
335
125
Rush Yds Allowed
38
6.4
Opp Yards / Pass Att
7.3
1.0
Sacks / Game
4.0
Ball Security & Kicking
100.0
FG %
100.0
Splits & Betting Record
+23.5
Point Diff / Game
+3.0
Situational (game-day)
7
Rest Days
7

Betting Splits 631 bets tracked

Each side is labeled — higher % means more tickets or dollars on that team / total.

Spread · % of tickets
ALST
44%
of tickets
TROY
56%
of tickets
Spread · % of money
ALST
33%
of handle
TROY
67%
of handle
Money is TROY-heavy vs tickets — sharp signal.
Total · % of tickets
Under
89%
of tickets
Over
11%
of tickets

Availability & Conditions

ALST
No report
TROY
No report
85°F Thunderstorms

PMill Verdict

No playable edge — use the team stats and factor bars above.

Projected ALST 20.9 – TROY 9.0

Deep offense/defense bars stay primary. This is the graded roll-up after you’ve scanned the board.