NHL picks
NHL Scotiabank Saddledome
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Anaheim Ducks

8-7-1
19:09 - 2nd
1 – 3
Pregame proj 3.08–3.32
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Calgary Flames

7-8-1

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
ANA +124 open +110 42.8% —
CGY -148 open -132 57.2% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
ANA +1.5 -198 66.4% w/ vig 63.7% —
CGY -1.5 +164 37.9% w/ vig 36.3% —
Total 4.8% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -110 52.4% w/ vig 50.0% —
Under u6.5 -110 52.4% w/ vig 50.0% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
ANA
+1.5 -198
+124
O 6.5 -110
CGY
-1.5 +164
-148
U 6.5 -110

Model vs market

Projected score
ANA 3.08 – CGY 3.32
Projected total
6.61
Market 6.5 · model +0.1
Projected margin
CGY 0.2
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
ANA ML Moneyline · +124 42.8% 45.4% — — 🔒
CGY ML Moneyline · -148 57.2% 54.6% — — 🔒
ANA +1.5 Spread · -198 63.7% 71.6% — — 🔒
CGY -1.5 Spread · +164 36.3% 28.4% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · -110 50.0% 51.3% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · -110 50.0% 48.7% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines ANA–CGY

3–3
6.5%
2–2
5.7%
2–3
4.5%
3–2
4.2%
4–4
4.2%
3–4
3.9%
Over 5.5: 62%Over 6.5: 51%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.39 #7/31
Goals / game
2.59 #29/31
3.66 #30/31
Goals against / game
3.28 #23/31
24.6 #28/31
Shots for / game
27.9 #11/31
27.2 #14/31
Shots against / game
29.9 #27/31
36.2% #2/31
Power play %
29.7% #4/31
73.9% #22/31
Penalty kill %
84.0% #9/31
46.6% #27/31
Faceoff %
46.8% #26/31
1.07 #7/31
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.86 #29/31
1.14 #30/31
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.04 #23/31
1.76 #2/31
Form points / game
0.71 #18/31
1452 #22/31
Elo
1441 #26/31
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
47.6%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
46.9%
2.41
xGF / 60
2.30
2.66
xGA / 60
2.61
49.7%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
50.6%
46.6%
High-danger shot share
42.8%
7.04
Power play xGF / 60
6.03
7.12
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.98

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Lukas Dostal Goalie priced Dustin Wolf
-0.04
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.14
+0.2
GSAx this season
-5.5
-2.9
GSAx last season
-1.8
86.8%
Save %
87.4%
3.63
Goals-against avg
3.63
9
Starts
8

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Anaheim Ducks
Goalie Lukas Dostal Unconfirmed
Back-to-back
Calgary Flames
Goalie Dustin Wolf Confirmed
1 day rest
✈ +2h time-zone shift

Form & trends

ANA · last 6
WLLWWW
CGY · last 6
WLWLWL
Home / road splits (per game)
CGY at home
Scores 3.06 · allows 2.84
ANA on the road
Scores 3.20 · allows 3.56

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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