NHL picks
NHL Rogers Arena
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Anaheim Ducks

6-7-1
Final
5 – 4
Pregame proj 3.96–2.88
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Vancouver Canucks

3-12-1

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ VAN moneyline opened +125, now +160
Moneyline 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
ANA -192 open -152 63.1% —
VAN +160 open +125 36.9% —
Puck line 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
ANA -1.5 +136 42.4% w/ vig 40.7% —
VAN +1.5 -162 61.8% w/ vig 59.3% —
Total 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -142 58.7% w/ vig 56.3% —
Under u6.5 +120 45.5% w/ vig 43.7% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
ANA
-1.5 +136
-192
O 6.5 -142
VAN
+1.5 -162
+160
U 6.5 +120

Model vs market

Projected score
ANA 3.96 – VAN 2.88
Projected total
7.02
Market 6.5 · model +0.5
Projected margin
ANA 1.1
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
ANA ML Moneyline · -192 63.1% 63.8% — — 🔒
VAN ML Moneyline · +160 36.9% 36.2% — — 🔒
ANA -1.5 Spread · +136 40.7% 40.6% — — 🔒
VAN +1.5 Spread · -162 59.3% 59.4% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · -142 56.3% 57.3% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · +120 43.7% 42.7% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines ANA–VAN

3–3
5.8%
2–2
4.6%
3–2
4.4%
4–2
4.3%
4–3
4.1%
4–4
4.1%
Over 5.5: 68%Over 6.5: 57%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.30 #9/29
Goals / game
2.81 #25/29
3.64 #28/29
Goals against / game
3.97 #29/29
25.0 #25/29
Shots for / game
21.5 #29/29
27.6 #15/29
Shots against / game
31.9 #29/29
34.0% #2/29
Power play %
19.6% #18/29
76.4% #16/29
Penalty kill %
66.7% #27/29
47.0% #24/29
Faceoff %
46.5% #25/29
1.04 #10/29
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.92 #25/29
1.13 #28/29
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.22 #29/29
1.08 #12/29
Form points / game
0.28 #25/29
1424 #25/29
Elo
1289 #29/29
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
47.7%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
41.9%
2.43
xGF / 60
2.08
2.68
xGA / 60
2.88
49.9%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
45.2%
47.4%
High-danger shot share
44.0%
7.03
Power play xGF / 60
6.50
7.16
Penalty kill xGA / 60
9.21

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Laurent Brossoit Goalie priced Kevin Lankinen
-0.10
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.48
-0.1
GSAx this season
-12.1
-2.4
GSAx last season
-19.3
87.9%
Save %
82.6%
3.47
Goals-against avg
5.67
1
Starts
7

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Anaheim Ducks
Goalie Laurent Brossoit Confirmed
1 day rest
Vancouver Canucks
Goalie Kevin Lankinen Confirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

ANA · last 6
LLWLLW
VAN · last 6
LLLWLL
Home / road splits (per game)
VAN at home
Scores 2.79 · allows 3.84
ANA on the road
Scores 3.07 · allows 3.52

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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