NHL picks
NHL SAP Center at San Jose
Away

Buffalo Sabres

4-4-3
@ Proj 3.3–3.14
Home

San Jose Sharks

6-5-1
PMill verdict

🔒 PMill pick is locked

Buy credits or subscribe for $39.99/mo. Every stat, projection and price on this page stays free.

Start 7-day free trial

PMill Pro unlocks this verdict and every game on the board, $39.99/mo or $299/yr. Cancel anytime.

Model vs market

Projected score
BUF 3.3 – SJ 3.14
Projected total
6.66
Projected margin
BUF 0.2
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 62.2% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 37.8% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines BUF–SJ

3–3
6.7%
2–2
5.8%
3–2
4.4%
4–4
4.3%
2–3
4.2%
4–3
3.8%
Over 5.5: 62%Over 6.5: 52%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

Start 7-day free trial

PMill Pro unlocks this breakdown plus every game on the board, $39.99/mo or $299/yr. Cancel anytime.

Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.13 #10/27
Goals / game
3.15 #9/27
3.22 #19/27
Goals against / game
3.43 #24/27
26.4 #17/27
Shots for / game
28.1 #10/27
26.6 #13/27
Shots against / game
30.3 #23/27
10.5% #26/27
Power play %
26.8% #6/27
69.2% #22/27
Penalty kill %
80.5% #13/27
47.8% #21/27
Faceoff %
46.4% #23/27
1.00 #10/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.01 #9/27
1.03 #20/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.08 #24/27
0.20 #25/27
Form points / game
0.84 #16/27
1486 #14/27
Elo
1471 #17/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
49.9%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
45.9%
2.42
xGF / 60
2.23
2.43
xGA / 60
2.63
51.0%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
46.7%
55.5%
High-danger shot share
45.2%
6.05
Power play xGF / 60
6.44
7.87
Penalty kill xGA / 60
8.16

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen Goalie priced Yaroslav Askarov
+0.01
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.16
-3.6
GSAx this season
+2.7
+10.5
GSAx last season
-18.9
86.5%
Save %
88.4%
3.58
Goals-against avg
3.45
8
Starts
7

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
Buffalo Sabres
Goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen Unconfirmed
2 days rest
✈ -3h time-zone shift
San Jose Sharks
Goalie Yaroslav Askarov Unconfirmed
2 days rest
✈ -3h time-zone shift

Form & trends

BUF · last 6
WLWLLL
SJ · last 6
WLLWWL
Home / road splits (per game)
SJ at home
Scores 3.23 · allows 3.35
BUF on the road
Scores 3.24 · allows 3.32

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

Community

Loading community picks…

Community picks —
Live thread
Real-time chat during the game.
Open

Discussion 0

Be respectful. Bad takes are fine, bad manners are not.