NHL picks
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Detroit Red Wings

4-4-3
@ Proj 2.73–3.58
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Edmonton Oilers

8-2-1
PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ EDM moneyline opened -250, now -180
Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
DET +150 open +200 38.4% —
EDM -180 open -250 61.6% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
DET +1.5 -148 59.7% w/ vig 57.2% —
EDM -1.5 +124 44.6% w/ vig 42.8% —
Total 4.6% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -118 54.1% w/ vig 51.7% —
Under u6.5 -102 50.5% w/ vig 48.3% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
DET
+1.5 -148
+150
O 6.5 -118
EDM
-1.5 +124
-180
U 6.5 -102

Model vs market

Projected score
DET 2.73 – EDM 3.58
Projected total
6.52
Market 6.5 · model +0.0
Projected margin
EDM 0.8
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
DET ML Moneyline · +150 38.4% 30.8% — — 🔒
EDM ML Moneyline · -180 61.6% 69.2% — — 🔒
DET +1.5 Spread · -148 57.2% 63.2% — — 🔒
EDM -1.5 Spread · +124 42.8% 36.8% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · -118 51.7% 49.7% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · -102 48.3% 50.3% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines DET–EDM

3–3
6.3%
2–2
5.8%
2–3
4.9%
2–4
4.4%
3–4
4.0%
4–4
3.9%
Over 5.5: 60%Over 6.5: 50%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.88 #22/30
Goals / game
3.71 #1/30
3.10 #15/30
Goals against / game
3.22 #21/30
29.8 #5/30
Shots for / game
25.4 #24/30
25.6 #8/30
Shots against / game
27.0 #14/30
21.1% #15/30
Power play %
35.1% #2/30
65.8% #28/30
Penalty kill %
70.0% #24/30
50.1% #20/30
Faceoff %
50.2% #18/30
0.94 #22/30
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.15 #1/30
1.00 #15/30
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.03 #21/30
0.75 #22/30
Form points / game
0.99 #15/30
1420 #27/30
Elo
1578 #4/30
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
50.1%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
50.7%
2.36
xGF / 60
2.36
2.34
xGA / 60
2.29
51.3%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
49.1%
45.9%
High-danger shot share
54.6%
7.87
Power play xGF / 60
8.54
7.49
Penalty kill xGA / 60
8.20

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
John Gibson Goalie priced Tristan Jarry
+0.01
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.24
-4.2
GSAx this season
-6.2
+11.7
GSAx last season
-4.1
87.3%
Save %
87.8%
3.28
Goals-against avg
3.38
8
Starts
4

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
Detroit Red Wings
Goalie John Gibson Unconfirmed
1 day rest
Edmonton Oilers
Goalie Tristan Jarry Unconfirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

DET · last 6
LWWLWL
EDM · last 6
WLWWWL
Home / road splits (per game)
EDM at home
Scores 3.50 · allows 3.47
DET on the road
Scores 2.79 · allows 2.96

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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