NHL picks
NHL Amerant Bank Arena
Away

Detroit Red Wings

6-5-3
Final
5 – 3
Pregame proj 2.89–3.44
Home

Florida Panthers

8-4-2

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ Total opened 6.5, now 5.5
Moneyline 4.5% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
DET +145 open +140 39.1% —
FLA -175 open -167 60.9% —
Puck line 4.5% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
DET +1.5 -175 63.6% w/ vig 60.9% —
FLA -1.5 +145 40.8% w/ vig 39.1% —
Total 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o5.5 -130 open o6.5 54.3% —
Under u5.5 +110 open u6.5 45.7% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
DET
+1.5 -175
+145
O 5.5 -130
FLA
-1.5 +145
-175
U 5.5 +110

Model vs market

Projected score
DET 2.89 – FLA 3.44
Projected total
6.54
Market 5.5 · model +1.0
Projected margin
FLA 0.6
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
DET ML Moneyline · +145 39.1% 38.5% — — 🔒
FLA ML Moneyline · -175 60.9% 61.5% — — 🔒
DET +1.5 Spread · -175 60.9% 67.3% — — 🔒
FLA -1.5 Spread · +145 39.1% 32.7% — — 🔒
Over 5.5 Total · -130 54.3% 60.5% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · +110 45.7% 39.5% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines DET–FLA

3–3
6.4%
2–2
5.8%
2–3
4.8%
2–4
4.1%
4–4
4.0%
3–2
4.0%
Over 5.5: 60%Over 6.5: 50%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.97 #24/32
Goals / game
3.14 #17/32
3.09 #16/32
Goals against / game
3.08 #16/32
29.7 #7/32
Shots for / game
28.9 #8/32
24.4 #3/32
Shots against / game
24.1 #3/32
22.9% #14/32
Power play %
24.2% #9/32
68.9% #28/32
Penalty kill %
84.8% #7/32
50.6% #14/32
Faceoff %
48.1% #23/32
0.96 #24/32
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.00 #17/32
0.99 #17/32
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.99 #16/32
0.87 #18/32
Form points / game
1.76 #3/32
1443 #26/32
Elo
1523 #14/32
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
50.9%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
52.0%
2.40
xGF / 60
2.36
2.32
xGA / 60
2.19
51.3%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
53.5%
50.2%
High-danger shot share
49.3%
7.71
Power play xGF / 60
8.05
7.36
Penalty kill xGA / 60
5.84

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
John Gibson Goalie priced Akira Schmid
-0.02
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.04
-5.7
GSAx this season
-0.2
+11.7
GSAx last season
-1.0
86.6%
Save %
88.8%
3.23
Goals-against avg
2.84
10
Starts
7

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Detroit Red Wings
Goalie John Gibson Unconfirmed
1 day rest
Florida Panthers
Goalie Akira Schmid Unconfirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

DET · last 6
LWLWWL
FLA · last 6
WLLWWW
Home / road splits (per game)
FLA at home
Scores 3.42 · allows 2.97
DET on the road
Scores 2.84 · allows 2.96

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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