NHL picks
NHL Benchmark International Arena
Away

Detroit Red Wings

6-5
Final
2 – 4
Pregame proj 2.61–3.91
Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

8-3

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ TB moneyline opened -172, now -278
Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
DET +225 open +145 29.5% —
TB -278 open -172 70.5% —
Puck line 4.8% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
DET +1.5 -110 52.4% w/ vig 50.0% —
TB -1.5 -110 52.4% w/ vig 50.0% —
Total 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 +110 47.6% w/ vig 45.7% —
Under u6.5 -130 56.5% w/ vig 54.3% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
DET
+1.5 -110
+225
O 6.5 +110
TB
-1.5 -110
-278
U 6.5 -130

Model vs market

Projected score
DET 2.61 – TB 3.91
Projected total
6.71
Market 6.5 · model +0.2
Projected margin
TB 1.3
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 63.3% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 36.7% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines DET–TB

3–3
5.7%
2–2
5.1%
2–3
4.8%
2–4
4.6%
3–4
4.0%
4–4
3.7%
Over 5.5: 63%Over 6.5: 52%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.02 #16/29
Goals / game
3.46 #4/29
3.09 #14/29
Goals against / game
3.05 #11/29
29.6 #6/29
Shots for / game
30.1 #4/29
24.5 #3/29
Shots against / game
24.9 #7/29
23.5% #9/29
Power play %
15.2% #25/29
70.2% #22/29
Penalty kill %
77.1% #15/29
50.3% #14/29
Faceoff %
47.5% #22/29
0.97 #16/29
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.09 #4/29
0.99 #14/29
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.98 #11/29
1.41 #9/29
Form points / game
0.64 #20/29
1467 #17/29
Elo
1560 #8/29
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
51.2%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
54.2%
2.42
xGF / 60
2.68
2.31
xGA / 60
2.26
51.0%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
53.2%
50.8%
High-danger shot share
57.5%
7.69
Power play xGF / 60
6.93
7.47
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.88

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
John Gibson Goalie priced Andrei Vasilevskiy
-0.02
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.15
-5.7
GSAx this season
-2.8
+11.7
GSAx last season
+24.7
86.6%
Save %
87.5%
3.24
Goals-against avg
3.07
10
Starts
10

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Detroit Red Wings
Goalie John Gibson Confirmed
Back-to-back
Tampa Bay Lightning
Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy Confirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

DET · last 6
WLWWLW
TB · last 6
WWLLWL
Home / road splits (per game)
TB at home
Scores 3.42 · allows 2.73
DET on the road
Scores 2.92 · allows 2.96

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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