NHL picks
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Away

Florida Panthers

5-4
Final
3 – 2
Pregame proj 3.52–2.73
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Chicago Blackhawks

3-7

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
FLA -185 open -185 62.2% —
CHI +154 open +150 37.8% —
Puck line 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
FLA -1.5 +136 42.4% w/ vig 40.7% —
CHI +1.5 -162 61.8% w/ vig 59.3% —
Total 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 +105 48.8% w/ vig 46.8% —
Under u6.5 -125 55.6% w/ vig 53.2% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
FLA
-1.5 +136
-185
O 6.5 +105
CHI
+1.5 -162
+154
U 6.5 -125

Model vs market

Projected score
FLA 3.52 – CHI 2.73
Projected total
6.46
Market 6.5 · model -0.0
Projected margin
FLA 0.8
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 59.3% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 40.7% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines FLA–CHI

3–3
6.4%
2–2
6.0%
3–2
4.9%
4–2
4.3%
4–3
3.9%
4–4
3.9%
Over 5.5: 59%Over 6.5: 49%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.03 #14/27
Goals / game
2.53 #27/27
3.17 #16/27
Goals against / game
3.43 #24/27
28.1 #10/27
Shots for / game
21.4 #26/27
24.4 #5/27
Shots against / game
30.3 #23/27
19.2% #18/27
Power play %
10.3% #27/27
82.6% #9/27
Penalty kill %
76.7% #17/27
45.5% #24/27
Faceoff %
42.3% #27/27
0.98 #14/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.85 #27/27
1.01 #16/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.08 #24/27
1.21 #10/27
Form points / game
0.24 #25/27
1490 #14/27
Elo
1366 #27/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
51.4%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
42.6%
2.35
xGF / 60
2.08
2.23
xGA / 60
2.79
53.3%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
44.8%
49.2%
High-danger shot share
42.0%
7.70
Power play xGF / 60
5.99
5.97
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.72

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Akira Schmid Goalie priced Spencer Knight
-0.12
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.06
-3.4
GSAx this season
-1.4
-1.0
GSAx last season
+10.9
88.7%
Save %
88.2%
2.74
Goals-against avg
3.67
4
Starts
8

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Florida Panthers
Goalie Akira Schmid Confirmed
2 days rest
Chicago Blackhawks
Goalie Spencer Knight Confirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

FLA · last 6
WWWLLW
CHI · last 6
LWWLLL
Home / road splits (per game)
CHI at home
Scores 2.76 · allows 3.25
FLA on the road
Scores 2.81 · allows 3.38

AI Analysis Experimental

This is a matchup between a Florida side that rates well above Chicago in attack, special teams and 5v5 shot quality, and a Chicago team that has struggled through the opening stretch of the schedule.

The main unsettled item is goaltending. Florida's starter is confirmed as Akira Schmid, while Chicago's listed starter, Spencer Knight, remains unconfirmed. Chicago also comes in on one day of rest against Florida's two, a minor scheduling difference.

Sourced findings
  • Florida's starter is confirmed as Akira Schmid, removing the away-side goalie uncertainty flagged in the model's verdict reasons.
    PMill data Already priced
  • Chicago's starter (Spencer Knight) is still listed as unconfirmed, so the home-side goaltending situation is not settled.
    PMill data Maybe not priced Notable
  • Chicago is on one day of rest versus two for Florida, a minor fatigue/back-to-back type edge for the visitor.
    PMill data Already priced
  • Preview and lineup pieces for this game exist but the item metadata contains only headlines, with no specific injury, suspension or lineup fact that can be verified.
    Inside The Rink Already priced

An AI research pass over our model and recent headlines (). It only uses the model's numbers and the linked sources, is tracked like a model, and does not change the pick. Unlock the game to see which side the research leans to.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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