NHL picks
NHL United Center
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Los Angeles Kings

2-5-2
@ Proj 3.0–2.99
Home

Chicago Blackhawks

3-7-0
PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

Moneyline 6.8% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
LA -125 open -125 52.0% —
CHI -105 open +105 48.0% —
Total
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o5.5 — —
Under u5.5 — —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
LA
+1.5 -110
-125
O 5.5 -110
CHI
-1.5 -110
-105
U 5.5 -110

Model vs market

Projected score
LA 3.0 – CHI 2.99
Projected total
6.21
Market 5.5 · model +0.7
Projected margin
LA 0.0
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · -110 (std) 50.0% 55.2% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · -110 (std) 50.0% 44.8% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines LA–CHI

2–2
6.8%
3–3
6.8%
3–2
4.7%
2–3
4.7%
4–4
3.8%
4–2
3.5%
Over 5.5: 55%Over 6.5: 45%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.73 #24/27
Goals / game
2.55 #26/27
3.21 #17/27
Goals against / game
3.44 #25/27
27.2 #12/27
Shots for / game
21.4 #26/27
29.1 #19/27
Shots against / game
30.3 #23/27
14.8% #22/27
Power play %
10.3% #27/27
65.5% #26/27
Penalty kill %
76.7% #17/27
51.0% #11/27
Faceoff %
42.3% #27/27
0.90 #24/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.85 #26/27
1.02 #17/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.08 #25/27
0.79 #18/27
Form points / game
0.43 #21/27
1425 #23/27
Elo
1376 #26/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
50.2%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
42.6%
2.30
xGF / 60
2.08
2.28
xGA / 60
2.79
50.5%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
44.8%
53.4%
High-danger shot share
42.0%
6.01
Power play xGF / 60
5.99
7.34
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.72

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Darcy Kuemper Goalie priced Spencer Knight
-0.10
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.06
-1.1
GSAx this season
-1.4
-5.8
GSAx last season
+10.9
88.6%
Save %
88.2%
3.55
Goals-against avg
3.67
6
Starts
8

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Los Angeles Kings
Goalie Darcy Kuemper Unconfirmed
Back-to-back
Chicago Blackhawks
Goalie Spencer Knight Unconfirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

LA · last 6
LLLWWL
CHI · last 6
LLWWLL
Home / road splits (per game)
CHI at home
Scores 2.78 · allows 3.26
LA on the road
Scores 2.92 · allows 3.11

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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