NHL picks
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Minnesota Wild

10-3
Final
4 – 2
Pregame proj 3.81–2.51
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Philadelphia Flyers

4-8

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ PHI moneyline opened +130, now +154
Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
MIN -185 open -156 62.2% —
PHI +154 open +130 37.8% —
Puck line 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
MIN -1.5 +140 41.7% w/ vig 40.0% —
PHI +1.5 -166 62.4% w/ vig 60.0% —
Total 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o5.5 -130 56.5% w/ vig 54.3% —
Under u5.5 +110 47.6% w/ vig 45.7% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
MIN
-1.5 +140
-185
O 5.5 -130
PHI
+1.5 -166
+154
U 5.5 +110

Model vs market

Projected score
MIN 3.81 – PHI 2.51
Projected total
6.51
Market 5.5 · model +1.0
Projected margin
MIN 1.3
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · -110 (std) 50.0% 60.2% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · -110 (std) 50.0% 39.8% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines MIN–PHI

3–3
5.8%
2–2
5.4%
3–2
5.0%
4–2
4.7%
4–3
4.0%
3–1
4.0%
Over 5.5: 60%Over 6.5: 49%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.18 #14/29
Goals / game
2.62 #27/29
2.65 #2/29
Goals against / game
3.20 #19/29
30.8 #3/29
Shots for / game
23.3 #27/29
25.2 #8/29
Shots against / game
29.8 #24/29
26.8% #7/29
Power play %
15.7% #24/29
81.2% #12/29
Penalty kill %
80.0% #12/29
48.9% #18/29
Faceoff %
50.7% #12/29
1.01 #14/29
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.86 #27/29
0.87 #2/29
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.02 #19/29
1.44 #9/29
Form points / game
1.06 #14/29
1596 #5/29
Elo
1460 #22/29
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
54.1%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
44.5%
2.64
xGF / 60
2.04
2.23
xGA / 60
2.56
50.7%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
46.2%
54.2%
High-danger shot share
44.8%
7.70
Power play xGF / 60
6.93
6.49
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.41

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Jesper Wallstedt Goalie priced Dan Vladar
+0.26
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.11
+10.9
GSAx this season
+0.1
+6.2
GSAx last season
+13.8
91.7%
Save %
88.6%
2.12
Goals-against avg
3.25
14
Starts
8

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Minnesota Wild
Goalie Jesper Wallstedt Confirmed
1 day rest
Philadelphia Flyers
Goalie Dan Vladar Confirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

MIN · last 6
LWWWLW
PHI · last 6
WWLLLW
Home / road splits (per game)
PHI at home
Scores 2.75 · allows 3.05
MIN on the road
Scores 3.20 · allows 2.78

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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