NHL picks
NHL Rogers Arena
Away

Minnesota Wild

7-3-2
Final
4 – 2
Pregame proj 4.11–2.54
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Vancouver Canucks

2-9-1

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
MIN -205 open -192 64.5% —
VAN +170 open +160 35.5% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
MIN -1.5 +124 44.6% w/ vig 42.8% —
VAN +1.5 -148 59.7% w/ vig 57.2% —
Total 4.7% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -115 53.5% w/ vig 51.1% —
Under u6.5 -105 51.2% w/ vig 48.9% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
MIN
-1.5 +124
-205
O 6.5 -115
VAN
+1.5 -148
+170
U 6.5 -105

Model vs market

Projected score
MIN 4.11 – VAN 2.54
Projected total
6.83
Market 6.5 · model +0.3
Projected margin
MIN 1.6
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
MIN ML Moneyline · -205 64.5% 69.3% — — 🔒
VAN ML Moneyline · +170 35.5% 30.7% — — 🔒
MIN -1.5 Spread · +124 42.8% 47.4% — — 🔒
VAN +1.5 Spread · -148 57.2% 52.6% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · -115 51.1% 54.1% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · -105 48.9% 45.9% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines MIN–VAN

3–3
5.6%
2–2
4.8%
4–2
4.7%
3–2
4.6%
4–3
4.0%
5–2
3.9%
Over 5.5: 65%Over 6.5: 54%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.11 #11/27
Goals / game
2.78 #22/27
2.73 #3/27
Goals against / game
3.96 #27/27
31.1 #3/27
Shots for / game
20.1 #27/27
25.6 #8/27
Shots against / game
33.5 #27/27
24.3% #9/27
Power play %
22.2% #11/27
80.0% #14/27
Penalty kill %
65.0% #27/27
50.9% #12/27
Faceoff %
47.4% #22/27
1.00 #12/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.91 #22/27
0.90 #3/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.22 #27/27
1.16 #10/27
Form points / game
0.00 #27/27
1559 #5/27
Elo
1297 #27/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
54.0%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
41.8%
2.60
xGF / 60
2.05
2.21
xGA / 60
2.87
51.0%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
44.8%
56.6%
High-danger shot share
41.8%
7.49
Power play xGF / 60
6.29
6.70
Penalty kill xGA / 60
9.20

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Calvin Pickard Goalie priced Leevi Merilainen
-0.18
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.15
-2.2
GSAx this season
+0.0
88.2%
Save %
90.0%
3.28
Goals-against avg
3.46
1
Starts
5

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Minnesota Wild
Goalie Calvin Pickard Confirmed
Back-to-back
Vancouver Canucks
Goalie Leevi Merilainen Confirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

MIN · last 6
LWWLLW
VAN · last 6
LLLLLL
Home / road splits (per game)
VAN at home
Scores 2.85 · allows 3.83
MIN on the road
Scores 3.12 · allows 2.93

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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