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Montreal Canadiens

5-3-2
@ Proj 3.1–3.11
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St. Louis Blues

5-5-1
PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ STL moneyline opened -111, now -132
Moneyline 9.5% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
MTL -111 open -111 48.0% —
STL -132 open -111 52.0% —
Total
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 — —
Under u6.5 — —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
MTL
+1.5 -110
-111
O 6.5 -110
STL
-1.5 -110
-132
U 6.5 -110

Model vs market

Projected score
MTL 3.1 – STL 3.11
Projected total
6.44
Market 6.5 · model -0.1
Projected margin
STL 0.0
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 58.8% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 41.2% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines MTL–STL

3–3
6.8%
2–2
6.3%
2–3
4.5%
3–2
4.5%
4–4
4.1%
3–4
3.6%
Over 5.5: 59%Over 6.5: 49%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.39 #6/27
Goals / game
2.90 #17/27
3.18 #16/27
Goals against / game
3.07 #10/27
29.5 #7/27
Shots for / game
26.4 #17/27
25.8 #10/27
Shots against / game
28.4 #18/27
12.5% #23/27
Power play %
24.1% #10/27
81.0% #11/27
Penalty kill %
82.8% #8/27
53.7% #5/27
Faceoff %
48.9% #20/27
1.07 #6/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.94 #17/27
1.02 #16/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.99 #10/27
1.34 #6/27
Form points / game
0.84 #16/27
1543 #8/27
Elo
1526 #10/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
50.9%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
49.0%
2.48
xGF / 60
2.35
2.39
xGA / 60
2.44
52.1%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
49.2%
46.8%
High-danger shot share
50.6%
6.37
Power play xGF / 60
6.03
6.93
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.08

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Jacob Fowler Goalie priced Joel Hofer
+0.17
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.16
+3.3
GSAx this season
+3.2
+7.1
GSAx last season
+11.7
89.6%
Save %
90.8%
2.41
Goals-against avg
2.63
5
Starts
8

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
Montreal Canadiens
Goalie Jacob Fowler Unconfirmed
1 day rest
St. Louis Blues
Goalie Joel Hofer Unconfirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

MTL · last 6
WWLWLW
STL · last 6
WLLWWL
Home / road splits (per game)
STL at home
Scores 2.88 · allows 2.90
MTL on the road
Scores 3.51 · allows 3.19

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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