NHL picks
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San Jose Sharks

7-9-1
16:14 - 2nd
0 – 1
Pregame proj 2.33–4.53
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Minnesota Wild

11-3-3

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ MIN moneyline opened -192, now -285
  • ↕ Total opened 5.5, now 6.5
Moneyline 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
SJ +230 open +155 29.0% —
MIN -285 open -192 71.0% —
Puck line 4.7% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
SJ +1.5 -105 51.2% w/ vig 48.9% —
MIN -1.5 -115 53.5% w/ vig 51.1% —
Total 4.8% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -110 open o5.5 50.0% —
Under u6.5 -110 open u5.5 50.0% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
SJ
+1.5 -105
+230
O 6.5 -110
MIN
-1.5 -115
-285
U 6.5 -110

Model vs market

Projected score
SJ 2.33 – MIN 4.53
Projected total
7.01
Market 6.5 · model +0.5
Projected margin
MIN 2.2
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
SJ ML Moneyline · +230 29.0% 21.7% — — 🔒
MIN ML Moneyline · -285 71.0% 78.3% — — 🔒
SJ +1.5 Spread · -105 48.9% 42.9% — — 🔒
MIN -1.5 Spread · -115 51.1% 57.1% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · -110 50.0% 56.3% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · -110 50.0% 43.7% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines SJ–MIN

2–4
4.8%
3–3
4.7%
2–5
4.4%
2–3
4.2%
1–4
4.1%
2–2
4.0%
Over 5.5: 68%Over 6.5: 56%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.93 #24/31
Goals / game
3.20 #14/31
3.45 #28/31
Goals against / game
2.63 #2/31
27.4 #17/31
Shots for / game
30.2 #4/31
30.2 #28/31
Shots against / game
25.2 #6/31
22.9% #10/31
Power play %
25.4% #8/31
81.0% #11/31
Penalty kill %
80.4% #12/31
48.1% #24/31
Faceoff %
49.0% #19/31
0.94 #24/31
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.02 #14/31
1.08 #28/31
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.87 #2/31
0.15 #28/31
Form points / game
1.72 #5/31
1403 #29/31
Elo
1609 #3/31
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
45.3%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
54.0%
2.22
xGF / 60
2.65
2.69
xGA / 60
2.25
47.0%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
50.6%
46.7%
High-danger shot share
55.1%
6.30
Power play xGF / 60
7.59
8.16
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.56

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Yaroslav Askarov Goalie priced Jesper Wallstedt
-0.14
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.28
+3.1
GSAx this season
+12.1
-18.9
GSAx last season
+6.2
88.6%
Save %
91.7%
3.36
Goals-against avg
2.11
11
Starts
15

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

San Jose Sharks
Goalie Yaroslav Askarov Confirmed
1 day rest
✈ +2h time-zone shift
Minnesota Wild
Goalie Jesper Wallstedt Confirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

SJ · last 6
LLWLLL
MIN · last 6
WWWLWW
Home / road splits (per game)
MIN at home
Scores 3.21 · allows 2.76
SJ on the road
Scores 3.00 · allows 3.61

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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