NHL picks
NHL Madison Square Garden
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St. Louis Blues

7-6
Final
1 – 3
Pregame proj 3.1–2.97
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New York Rangers

7-7

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ Total opened 6.5, now 5.5
Moneyline 4.5% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
STL +100 open +105 47.8% —
NYR -120 open -125 52.2% —
Puck line 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
STL +1.5 -250 71.4% w/ vig 68.5% —
NYR -1.5 +205 32.8% w/ vig 31.5% —
Total 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o5.5 -130 open o6.5 54.3% —
Under u5.5 +110 open u6.5 45.7% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
STL
+1.5 -250
+100
O 5.5 -130
NYR
-1.5 +205
-120
U 5.5 +110

Model vs market

Projected score
STL 3.1 – NYR 2.97
Projected total
6.29
Market 5.5 · model +0.8
Projected margin
STL 0.1
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · -110 (std) 50.0% 56.5% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · -110 (std) 50.0% 43.5% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines STL–NYR

3–3
6.5%
2–2
6.4%
3–2
4.8%
2–3
4.6%
4–4
3.8%
4–2
3.7%
Over 5.5: 57%Over 6.5: 46%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.91 #21/29
Goals / game
3.02 #16/29
3.01 #8/29
Goals against / game
3.05 #11/29
26.4 #15/29
Shots for / game
24.9 #26/29
28.0 #18/29
Shots against / game
26.1 #9/29
23.7% #8/29
Power play %
20.0% #16/29
83.3% #8/29
Penalty kill %
89.1% #2/29
49.6% #17/29
Faceoff %
54.4% #6/29
0.94 #21/29
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.97 #16/29
0.97 #9/29
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.98 #12/29
1.57 #6/29
Form points / game
0.08 #28/29
1542 #9/29
Elo
1463 #19/29
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
49.6%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
49.8%
2.40
xGF / 60
2.36
2.44
xGA / 60
2.37
49.1%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
48.6%
51.6%
High-danger shot share
54.0%
5.75
Power play xGF / 60
7.98
5.91
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.44

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Joel Hofer Goalie priced Dylan Garand
+0.15
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.01
+2.9
GSAx this season
-0.5
+11.7
GSAx last season
+3.9
90.9%
Save %
89.2%
2.60
Goals-against avg
2.83
10
Starts
9

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

St. Louis Blues
Goalie Joel Hofer Confirmed
2 days rest
New York Rangers
Goalie Dylan Garand Confirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

STL · last 6
WWLLWW
NYR · last 6
LWLLLL
Home / road splits (per game)
NYR at home
Scores 3.17 · allows 2.90
STL on the road
Scores 3.00 · allows 3.31

AI Analysis Experimental

St. Louis visits New York with the Blues holding better recent results and stronger underlying attack and defense numbers, while the Rangers rate better at the faceoff dot. The model's goal projection is close to six, and the total has dropped from 6.5 to 5.5 since opening.

New York did recall forward Jaroslav Chmelar for depth, a minor move. Both projected starting goaltenders, Joel Hofer and Dylan Garand, are listed as unconfirmed, so the goaltending matchup could still change before puck drop.

With unconfirmed starters on both sides and no injury or suspension reporting in the available items, the main thing to watch is the official goalie announcements and any late lineup news.

Sourced findings
  • Rangers recalled forward Jaroslav Chmelar, a minor roster move that adds depth but does not change the top of the lineup.
    Yahoo Sports Already priced
  • Both projected starting goalies (Joel Hofer for St. Louis, Dylan Garand for New York) are listed as unconfirmed, so the goaltending assumption behind the model's GSAx edge is not yet locked in.
    PMill data Already priced Notable

An AI research pass over our model and recent headlines (). It only uses the model's numbers and the linked sources, is tracked like a model, and does not change the pick. Unlock the game to see which side the research leans to.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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