NHL picks
NHL Scotiabank Saddledome
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Toronto Maple Leafs

7-4-2
@ Proj 3.22–3.07
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Calgary Flames

4-6-0
PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ CGY moneyline opened -100, now +136
Moneyline 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
TOR -162 open -120 59.3% —
CGY +136 open -100 40.7% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
TOR -1.5 +150 40.0% w/ vig 38.4% —
CGY +1.5 -180 64.3% w/ vig 61.6% —
Total 4.5% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -120 54.5% w/ vig 52.2% —
Under u6.5 +100 50.0% w/ vig 47.8% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
TOR
-1.5 +150
-162
O 6.5 -120
CGY
+1.5 -180
+136
U 6.5 +100

Model vs market

Projected score
TOR 3.22 – CGY 3.07
Projected total
6.51
Market 6.5 · model +0.0
Projected margin
TOR 0.1
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
TOR ML Moneyline · -162 59.3% 49.8% — — 🔒
CGY ML Moneyline · +136 40.7% 50.2% — — 🔒
TOR -1.5 Spread · +150 38.4% 27.1% — — 🔒
CGY +1.5 Spread · -180 61.6% 72.9% — — 🔒
Over 6.5 Total · -120 52.2% 49.6% — — 🔒
Under 6.5 Total · +100 47.8% 50.4% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines TOR–CGY

3–3
6.6%
2–2
6.0%
3–2
4.6%
2–3
4.3%
4–4
4.1%
4–3
3.8%
Over 5.5: 60%Over 6.5: 50%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.40 #6/30
Goals / game
2.58 #28/30
3.32 #25/30
Goals against / game
3.39 #26/30
28.6 #10/30
Shots for / game
28.7 #8/30
30.0 #24/30
Shots against / game
30.5 #26/30
30.2% #5/30
Power play %
32.0% #4/30
95.2% #1/30
Penalty kill %
84.9% #6/30
51.7% #9/30
Faceoff %
49.5% #21/30
1.07 #6/30
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.86 #28/30
1.05 #25/30
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.07 #26/30
1.87 #2/30
Form points / game
1.80 #4/30
1497 #15/30
Elo
1415 #28/30
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
46.1%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
46.7%
2.21
xGF / 60
2.29
2.58
xGA / 60
2.61
46.6%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
50.0%
35.1%
High-danger shot share
45.4%
7.63
Power play xGF / 60
6.20
7.10
Penalty kill xGA / 60
7.14

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Sergei Bobrovsky Goalie priced Devin Cooley
-0.09
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.23
+2.5
GSAx this season
+1.6
-12.2
GSAx last season
+17.3
89.6%
Save %
90.0%
3.09
Goals-against avg
3.13
8
Starts
5

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky Unconfirmed
1 day rest
Calgary Flames
Goalie Devin Cooley Unconfirmed
1 day rest

Form & trends

TOR · last 6
LLWWWW
CGY · last 6
LWLWWW
Home / road splits (per game)
CGY at home
Scores 2.88 · allows 2.90
TOR on the road
Scores 3.39 · allows 3.49

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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