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Vancouver Canucks

2-9-1
@ Proj 2.65–3.95
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Anaheim Ducks

5-6-0
PMill verdict

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Model vs market

Projected score
VAN 2.65 – ANA 3.95
Projected total
6.79
Projected margin
ANA 1.3
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 64.3% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 35.7% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines VAN–ANA

3–3
5.9%
2–2
5.1%
2–3
4.6%
2–4
4.6%
3–4
4.0%
4–4
3.9%
Over 5.5: 64%Over 6.5: 54%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 10 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.78 #22/27
Goals / game
3.09 #12/27
3.96 #27/27
Goals against / game
3.48 #26/27
20.1 #27/27
Shots for / game
23.6 #24/27
33.5 #27/27
Shots against / game
27.2 #15/27
22.2% #11/27
Power play %
22.2% #11/27
65.0% #27/27
Penalty kill %
76.2% #18/27
47.4% #22/27
Faceoff %
44.5% #26/27
0.91 #22/27
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.99 #12/27
1.22 #27/27
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.09 #26/27
0.00 #27/27
Form points / game
0.93 #14/27
1297 #27/27
Elo
1426 #22/27
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
41.8%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
48.3%
2.05
xGF / 60
2.48
2.87
xGA / 60
2.67
44.8%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
50.3%
41.8%
High-danger shot share
45.6%
6.29
Power play xGF / 60
6.74
9.20
Penalty kill xGA / 60
7.01

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Leevi Merilainen Goalie priced Lukas Dostal
-0.15
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.02
+0.0
GSAx this season
+1.6
90.0%
Save %
87.9%
3.46
Goals-against avg
3.30
5
Starts
8

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Waiting on confirmed goalies — pick posts when the starter is confirmed.
Vancouver Canucks
Goalie Leevi Merilainen Unconfirmed
1 day rest
Anaheim Ducks
Goalie Lukas Dostal Unconfirmed
2 days rest
✈ -3h time-zone shift

Form & trends

VAN · last 6
LLLLLL
ANA · last 6
LLLLLW
Home / road splits (per game)
ANA at home
Scores 3.25 · allows 3.37
VAN on the road
Scores 2.72 · allows 3.85

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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