NHL picks
NHL PPG Paints Arena
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Vegas Golden Knights

9-5
Final
3 – 2
Pregame proj 3.21–3.29
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Pittsburgh Penguins

5-7

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ PIT moneyline opened +105, now -115
  • ↕ PIT puck line opened +1.5, now -1.5
Moneyline 4.7% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
VGK -105 open -125 48.9% —
PIT -115 open +105 51.1% —
Puck line 4.2% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
VGK +1.5 -250 open -1.5 68.5% —
PIT -1.5 +205 open +1.5 31.5% —
Total 4.5% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o6.5 -120 54.5% w/ vig 52.2% —
Under u6.5 +100 50.0% w/ vig 47.8% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
VGK
+1.5 -250
-105
O 6.5 -120
PIT
-1.5 +205
-115
U 6.5 +100

Model vs market

Projected score
VGK 3.21 – PIT 3.29
Projected total
6.7
Market 6.5 · model +0.2
Projected margin
PIT 0.1
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 63.0% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · no posted price 50.0% 37.0% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines VGK–PIT

3–3
6.4%
2–2
5.5%
2–3
4.3%
4–4
4.2%
3–2
4.2%
3–4
3.8%
Over 5.5: 63%Over 6.5: 53%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
3.30 #9/29
Goals / game
3.37 #7/29
3.00 #7/29
Goals against / game
3.33 #23/29
28.8 #7/29
Shots for / game
28.2 #9/29
25.7 #8/29
Shots against / game
28.0 #18/29
27.7% #6/29
Power play %
21.1% #14/29
70.0% #23/29
Penalty kill %
85.7% #5/29
50.3% #14/29
Faceoff %
45.3% #28/29
1.05 #9/29
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.06 #8/29
0.96 #7/29
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.05 #23/29
0.28 #25/29
Form points / game
0.43 #22/29
1512 #13/29
Elo
1481 #15/29
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
53.8%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
51.2%
2.51
xGF / 60
2.66
2.15
xGA / 60
2.53
51.6%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
51.1%
48.7%
High-danger shot share
49.7%
7.89
Power play xGF / 60
6.32
6.19
Penalty kill xGA / 60
6.73

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Adin Hill Goalie priced Arturs Silovs
-0.26
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
-0.09
-2.1
GSAx this season
+2.5
-14.2
GSAx last season
-11.9
89.0%
Save %
88.6%
2.85
Goals-against avg
3.12
7
Starts
9

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Vegas Golden Knights
Goalie Adin Hill Confirmed
Back-to-back
Pittsburgh Penguins
Goalie Arturs Silovs Confirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

VGK · last 6
LLLWLL
PIT · last 6
LLWWLL
Home / road splits (per game)
PIT at home
Scores 3.50 · allows 3.19
VGK on the road
Scores 2.96 · allows 2.99

AI Analysis Experimental

The model's inputs also flag goaltending as close, with neither projected starter yet confirmed for the game.

The only form note of substance is that Vegas carries a road losing streak into the matchup, and the moneyline has already shifted toward Pittsburgh since opening.

The open questions are the unconfirmed starting goalies on both sides and the general lack of detailed team news, which leaves the matchup short on fresh, hard information.

Sourced findings
  • Vegas enters on a road losing streak, a form note consistent with the rest/travel disadvantage already in the model.
    FOX Sports Already priced
  • Both projected starting goalies (Adin Hill for Vegas, Arturs Silovs for Pittsburgh) are listed as unconfirmed, so the goaltending input in the model could still change before puck drop.
    PMill data Already priced

An AI research pass over our model and recent headlines (). It only uses the model's numbers and the linked sources, is tracked like a model, and does not change the pick. Unlock the game to see which side the research leans to.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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