NHL picks
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Winnipeg Jets

4-8
Final/OT
5 – 4
Pregame proj 2.59–4.0
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Montreal Canadiens

9-3

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PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

  • ↕ Total opened 6.5, now 5.5
Moneyline 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
WPG +140 open +145 40.0% —
MTL -166 open -172 60.0% —
Puck line 4.3% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
WPG +1.5 -170 63.0% w/ vig 60.4% —
MTL -1.5 +142 41.3% w/ vig 39.6% —
Total 4.1% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o5.5 -130 open o6.5 54.3% —
Under u5.5 +110 open u6.5 45.7% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Puck Line
ML
O/U
WPG
+1.5 -170
+140
O 5.5 -130
MTL
-1.5 +142
-166
U 5.5 +110

Model vs market

Projected score
WPG 2.59 – MTL 4.0
Projected total
6.77
Market 5.5 · model +1.3
Projected margin
MTL 1.4
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
Over 5.5 Total · -110 (std) 50.0% 64.1% — — 🔒
Under 5.5 Total · -110 (std) 50.0% 35.9% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines WPG–MTL

3–3
5.6%
2–2
4.9%
2–4
4.7%
2–3
4.7%
3–4
4.0%
2–5
3.8%
Over 5.5: 64%Over 6.5: 53%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 11 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better · #rank in league

Team profile Season team stats
2.60 #28/29
Goals / game
3.40 #5/29
3.34 #24/29
Goals against / game
3.03 #10/29
26.3 #16/29
Shots for / game
27.5 #13/29
29.7 #23/29
Shots against / game
27.6 #15/29
16.7% #21/29
Power play %
9.5% #29/29
70.5% #21/29
Penalty kill %
81.8% #11/29
45.8% #27/29
Faceoff %
51.6% #10/29
0.86 #28/29
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
1.07 #5/29
1.06 #24/29
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
0.97 #10/29
0.00 #29/29
Form points / game
1.95 #1/29
1378 #27/29
Elo
1603 #3/29
Shot quality · 5-on-5 Shot-quality model
47.0%
Expected goals share (xGF%)
51.3%
2.24
xGF / 60
2.54
2.53
xGA / 60
2.40
48.4%
Shot attempt share (Corsi%)
51.2%
40.7%
High-danger shot share
48.5%
6.88
Power play xGF / 60
6.02
8.86
Penalty kill xGA / 60
7.09

Early in the season last year's numbers are blended in (this season weighs games ÷ (games + 15)).

Goaltending Shot-quality model · season stats
Stuart Skinner Goalie priced Jacob Fowler
+0.10
GSAx / 60 (regressed)
+0.34
+1.9
GSAx this season
+9.8
+8.3
GSAx last season
+7.1
88.4%
Save %
92.0%
3.43
Goals-against avg
2.19
10
Starts
8

GSAx = goals saved above expected; regressed toward average.

Starting goalies & rest

Winnipeg Jets
Goalie Stuart Skinner Confirmed
1 day rest
Montreal Canadiens
Goalie Jacob Fowler Confirmed
2 days rest

Form & trends

WPG · last 6
LLLLLL
MTL · last 6
LWWWWW
Home / road splits (per game)
MTL at home
Scores 3.31 · allows 3.17
WPG on the road
Scores 2.58 · allows 3.47

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read was run for this game.

Model run Season team statsShot-quality modelSeason statsLeague statsOdds: sportsbook consensus

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