Soccer
Serie A Stadio Benito Stirpe
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Frosinone

4-2-2 #6 · 14 pts
vs Proj 1.99–1.15
Away

Lecce

3-0-5 #12 · 9 pts
PMill verdict

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Odds & market Consensus

Match result (90 min) 7.4% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
LEC +320 open +390 22.2% —
Draw +310 24.4% w/ vig 22.7% —
FRO -145 open -147 55.1% —
Asian handicap 8.4% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
LEC +0.5 +110 47.6% w/ vig 43.9% —
FRO -0.5 -155 60.8% w/ vig 56.1% —
Total 6.8% hold
Side Consensus No-vig Best
Over o3.5 -105 51.2% w/ vig 48.0% —
Under u3.5 -125 55.6% w/ vig 52.0% —

No-vig = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed — the market's own win probability. Best-price shopping appears when our odds feed has more than one book on this game.

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Match result · 1X2
Goals · O/U 3.5
Both teams to score
Asian handicap

Model vs market

Projected score
FRO 1.99 – LEC 1.15
Projected total
3.14
Market 3.5 · model -0.4
Projected margin
FRO 0.8
Selection Market Model Blend Fair EV
LEC Win Match result · +320 22.2% 21.2% — — 🔒
Draw Match result · +310 22.7% 22.6% — — 🔒
FRO Win Match result · -145 55.1% 56.2% — — 🔒
LEC +0.5 Asian handicap · +110 43.9% 43.8% — — 🔒
FRO -0.5 Asian handicap · -155 56.1% 56.2% — — 🔒
Over 3.5 Total · -105 48.0% 38.4% — — 🔒
Under 3.5 Total · -125 52.0% 61.6% — — 🔒

Market = no-vig probability from the consensus price. Model = PMill's raw probability. Blend, fair odds and EV unlock with the pick. “(std)” = standard −110 assumed where the book's price isn't in our feed; “n/a” = no book has posted this line yet.

Most likely scorelines FRO–LEC

1–1
10.4%
2–1
9.8%
2–0
8.5%
1–0
8.1%
3–1
6.5%
1–2
5.7%
Over 2.5: 61%Both teams score: 60%

Why the model leans this way

🔒 See which of the model's 8 inputs push this game and how hard, plus the category leans and the AI write-up.

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Team stat comparison Brighter bar = better

Table & strength Elo ratings · league tables
#6
League position
#12
14
Points
9
1522
Elo
1477
1.57
Form points / game
0.89
1.21
Attack strength 1.00 = league average
0.87
1.04
Defense strength below 1.00 = stingier than average
1.08
Form & venue League results
4-2-2 Record (W-D-L) 3-0-5
D W L W D Last 5 (oldest → newest) W L L W L
2.25
Goals / game, this venue home side at home, away side on the road
1.25
1.25
Conceded / game, this venue home side at home, away side on the road
1.00
3.14
Goals / game, recent form
1.03
2.87
Conceded / game, recent form
1.54
Attack xG: shot model
2.12
Goals / game
1.12
1.67
Expected goals / game
1.57
+0.46
Finishing vs expected
-0.45
18.2
Shots / game
11.8
6.1
Shots on target / game
4.6
25%
Failed to score %
50%
Defense xG: shot model
1.62
Goals against / game
1.75
2.58
Expected goals against / game
2.27
19.9
Shots allowed / game
14.2
6.1
Shots on target allowed
6.0
25%
Clean sheet %
25%
50%
Both teams score %
25%

Form & trends

FRO · last 6
WDWLWD
LEC · last 6
LWLLWL
Home / road splits (per game)
FRO at home
Scores 2.25 · allows 1.25
LEC on the road
Scores 1.25 · allows 1.00

AI Analysis Experimental

No AI research read for this game yet. Reads run around 9:20 ET and about 90 minutes before start for games with a pick or model lean.

Model run Elo ratingsLeague tablesLeague resultsXG: shot modelTable, form & resultsExpected goalsShots & shots on targetOdds: sportsbook consensus

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